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Religion & Spirituality20256 min read

Why We Believe: A Global Story of Faith

Childhood predictors of adults’ belief in god, gods, and spiritual forces across 22 countries

Notable finding

No childhood predictor had a consistent association with adult belief across all 22 countries, even weekly religious attendance at age 12

By
Moon, Jordan W. et al.
Participants
202,898
Countries
22
Journal
Scientific Reports
DOI
10.1038/s41598-025-98796-1
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§1

Key Takeaways

01

When pooled across all 22 countries, only childhood religious service attendance, birth cohort, and gender were significantly associated with adult belief in God, while most other candidate predictors—including parental marital status, childhood socioeconomic status, abuse, and immigration status—had near-null average effects.

02

No childhood predictor showed a consistent association with adult belief in God across all 22 countries, and even the strongest predictor, childhood religious service attendance, exhibited substantial cross-country variation with larger effects in less religious societies and negligible effects in overwhelmingly religious ones.

03

Many childhood factors previously considered robust predictors of religious belief, such as low socioeconomic status and parental relationship quality, showed small or non-significant effects in most countries, suggesting that prior findings from Western samples may not be universally applicable.

§2

Why It Matters

Understanding someone's faith means understanding their world, not just their personal history.

This research challenges decades of assumptions built largely on Western data. For scientists, it's a wake-up call that theories about religion and human development need to be tested across cultures, not just in places where secularization has already reshaped society. For the public, it offers a more honest picture: there is no single recipe for how faith takes root in a person's life. What matters in one country may be irrelevant in another. This has real implications for how we think about religious freedom, education, mental health support, and immigration — policies that touch people's spiritual lives should account for cultural context rather than assuming one universal pattern. The study also highlights something hopeful: even difficult childhoods don't deterministically push people toward or away from faith. The relationship between hardship and belief is far more nuanced and culturally shaped than we realized.

This research challenges decades of assumptions built largely on Western data. For scientists, it's a wake-up call that theories about religion and human development need to be tested across cultures, not just in places where secularization has already reshaped society. For the public, it offers a more honest picture: there is no single recipe for how faith takes root in a person's life. What matters in one country may be irrelevant in another. This has real implications for how we think about religious freedom, education, mental health support, and immigration — policies that touch people's spiritual lives should account for cultural context rather than assuming one universal pattern. The study also highlights something hopeful: even difficult childhoods don't deterministically push people toward or away from faith. The relationship between hardship and belief is far more nuanced and culturally shaped than we realized.

Understanding someone's faith means understanding their world, not just their personal history.

§3

The Story

Researchers asked a simple but profound question: what in our childhood leads us to believe in God, gods, or spiritual forces as adults? They surveyed over 200,000 people across 22 countries, from Tanzania to Japan to the United States, looking at things like family structure, childhood hardship, relationships with parents, abuse, feeling like an outsider, immigration, and how often kids attended religious services around age 12. The results were surprising.

Childhood hardship, from poverty to abuse, does not universally predict whether a person will believe in God.

When averaged across all countries, only three things stood out: attending religious services as a child, being born in an older generation, and being a woman. Everything else — divorce, poverty, abuse, feeling left out, even how close you were to your parents — had almost no overall effect. But here's the twist: that doesn't mean those things don't matter. It means they matter differently depending on where you live.

In less religious countries like Japan and Sweden, childhood experiences like feeling like an outsider or having divorced parents had a real connection to adult belief. In highly religious countries like Tanzania and Egypt, where nearly everyone already believes, those same experiences made little difference. The study suggests that much of what we thought we knew about how faith develops came mostly from Western countries, and those patterns simply don't hold everywhere. Culture, it turns out, changes the whole story.

Figure
1.29x
Childhood Attendance and Adult Belief

Adults who attended religious services at least weekly at age 12 were 1.29 times more likely to believe in God, gods, or spiritual forces compared to those who never attended, in the pooled analysis across 22 countries.

Figure
+6%
Gender Gap in Religious Belief

Women were 6% more likely than men to report belief in God, gods, or spiritual forces in adulthood, in the pooled analysis across 22 countries.

Figure
1.9x
Robustness of Attendance Association

An unmeasured confounder would need to be associated with both childhood religious service attendance and adult belief in God by risk ratios of at least 1.9-fold each to fully explain away the observed association.

Figure
59%
Countries with Strong Attendance Effect

In an estimated 59% of the 22 countries, weekly childhood religious service attendance was associated with at least a 10% higher probability of adult belief in God.

Figures
1.29x
Childhood Attendance and Adult Belief

Adults who attended religious services at least weekly at age 12 were 1.29 times more likely to believe in God, gods, or spiritual forces compared to those who never attended, in the pooled analysis across 22 countries.

+6%
Gender Gap in Religious Belief

Women were 6% more likely than men to report belief in God, gods, or spiritual forces in adulthood, in the pooled analysis across 22 countries.

1.9x
Robustness of Attendance Association

An unmeasured confounder would need to be associated with both childhood religious service attendance and adult belief in God by risk ratios of at least 1.9-fold each to fully explain away the observed association.

59%
Countries with Strong Attendance Effect

In an estimated 59% of the 22 countries, weekly childhood religious service attendance was associated with at least a 10% higher probability of adult belief in God.

§4

Reader Questions

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Research Details
& Citation

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Published
2025
Journal
Scientific Reports
Participants
202,898
Countries
22
Cite this paper
Moon, J. W., Johnson, K. A., Case, B., Padgett, R. N., Johnson, B. R., & VanderWeele, T. J. (2025). Childhood predictors of adults’ belief in god, gods, and spiritual forces across 22 countries. Scientific Reports, 15(1). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-025-98796-1
Tags
belief-in-godreligion-spiritualitychildhoodcross-culturalservice-attendancegender
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