The Surprising Age Gap in Swedish Happiness

Sweden regularly ranks among the happiest countries on Earth. But when researchers looked closely at over 15,000 Swedes using data from the Global Flourishing Study, they found a story behind the rankings that is less cheerful. Using machine learning to analyze 65 factors — including demographics, personality traits, and social relationships — they could predict a person's well-being with striking accuracy, explaining about 65% of the differences between people.

A happiness gap between generations is a new trend in Sweden, driven by the declining well-being of its young people.

The strongest predictors were not surprising: people who scored high on neuroticism (a tendency toward worry and negative emotions) and people who felt lonely had much lower well-being. People who were satisfied with their relationships and friendships had higher well-being. But one finding stood out. Age was the strongest demographic predictor of well-being in Sweden — and not in the way you might expect.

Older Swedes reported significantly higher well-being than younger ones. The gap between the youngest adults (18-23) and the oldest (75-80) was enormous: almost a full standard deviation for men and over one standard deviation for women. Young women were especially affected, starting from a much lower point than young men. What makes this truly surprising is how new it is. Using separate data stretching from 2006 to 2024, the researchers found that the link between age and well-being in Sweden was essentially zero for about 15 years.

Only around 2020 did the gap begin to open, as younger Swedes declined and older Swedes rose. The reasons are not yet certain, but candidates include the rise of smartphones and social media, declining physical activity among youth, and growing loneliness in young people.