The Childhood Roots of Adult Confidence
A healthy and stable childhood has an even bigger impact on an adult’s sense of control in wealthier countries than in poorer ones.
Analytic methodology for childhood predictor analyses for wave 1 of the Global Flourishing Study
This paper outlines a standardized statistical methodology for analyzing how childhood experiences predict adult well-being across 22 diverse countries in the Global Flourishing Study.
The analytical approach involves conducting separate regression analyses for each country to respect cultural variations, followed by a meta-analysis to synthesize the results and identify global patterns.
To ensure rigor and transparency, the methodology includes adjustments for complex survey designs, imputation for missing data, sensitivity analyses for unmeasured confounding, and openly available analysis code.
This research is the bedrock for a new generation of global well-being science. For scientists, it provides a gold-standard, open-source toolkit. It allows researchers from different fields and countries to work from a shared playbook, making their findings comparable and building a more cohesive understanding of the human condition. This prevents a scenario where every study uses slightly different methods, making it impossible to see the big picture.
“Rigorous, transparent science provides the evidence needed to build policies that support children and families globally.”
For the public and for policymakers, this work builds trust. The findings that will emerge from this study—about the long-term effects of childhood poverty, family stability, or education—can be trusted because the method behind them is so transparent and rigorous. When a future study using this blueprint shows that a specific childhood factor consistently helps people flourish across the globe, that provides a powerful, evidence-based argument for creating policies that support children and families everywhere. This paper isn't just about good science; it's about building the confidence we need to make real-world changes that matter.
“Rigorous, transparent science provides the evidence needed to build policies that support children and families globally.”
We all wonder how our childhoods affect who we become as adults. Does a good relationship with our parents make us happier? Does financial struggle early in life leave a lasting mark?
“A single, shared recipe allows scientists to discover what truly helps people thrive, no matter where they live.”
The Global Flourishing Study, a massive research project, is trying to answer these very questions on a global scale. This particular paper, however, isn't about the answers themselves—it's about creating the master recipe to find them. Think of it like this: if you want to compare cakes baked in 22 different kitchens around the world, you need to make sure everyone uses the same recipe. This paper lays out that recipe for social scientists.
It provides a detailed, step-by-step statistical plan for analyzing data from over 200,000 people. The plan tells researchers exactly how to look at childhood experiences—like the quality of parental relationships, family finances, childhood health, and religious upbringing—and connect them to adult outcomes like happiness, purpose, and a sense of control over one's life. Why is one single recipe so important? Because cultures are different, languages are different, and life experiences are different. This standardized blueprint ensures that when scientists compare a finding from Japan to one from Brazil, they are doing it in a fair, consistent, and reliable way.
It accounts for complex issues like missing data and statistical quirks. By creating this rigorous guide, the researchers have built the essential foundation for discovering trustworthy truths about what helps people thrive, no matter where they live.
An estimated 89% of participants across 22 countries reported having a somewhat good or very good relationship with their mother while growing up.
Adults who rated their health as 'excellent' while growing up were 1.08 times more likely to have a high sense of mastery compared to those who rated their childhood health as 'good'.
Across the global sample, 41% of participants reported attending religious services at least once a week at age 12.
Individuals who reported experiencing abuse during childhood were 0.96 times as likely to report a high sense of mastery in adulthood compared to those who did not report abuse.
Padgett, R. N., Bradshaw, M., Chen, Y., Cowden, R. G., Jang, S. J., Kim, E. S., Shiba, K., Johnson, B. R., & VanderWeele, T. J. (2025). Analytic methodology for childhood predictor analyses for wave 1 of the Global Flourishing Study. BMC Global and Public Health, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s44263-025-00142-0
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