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Methods20256 min read
A Blueprint for Understanding How Our Childhoods Shape Us
Analytic methodology for childhood predictor analyses for wave 1 of the Global Flourishing Study
- By
- Padgett, R. Noah et al.
- Participants
- 200,000
- Countries
- 22
- Journal
- BMC Global and Public Health
- DOI
- 10.1186/s44263-025-00142-0
§1
Key Takeaways
01
The paper describes a coordinated analytic methodology for examining childhood predictors of adult well-being across 22 countries, using country-specific regression models combined through random-effects meta-analysis.
02
In an illustrative analysis of sense of mastery, no single childhood predictor appeared to dominantly predict adult mastery; instead, multiple childhood factors showed small associations with the outcome.
03
Sensitivity analyses using E-values indicated that some observed associations between childhood experiences and adult mastery were moderately robust to unmeasured confounding, though modest effect sizes meant recall bias could potentially explain away some results.
§2
Why It Matters
Rigorous, transparent science provides the evidence needed to build policies that support children and families globally.
This research matters because it gives us a shared, rigorous way to study how childhood experiences relate to adult well-being across cultures — not just in one country, but globally. By analyzing each country separately before combining results, the study respects that people in different cultures may interpret questions differently, which makes the findings more trustworthy. The methods described here — including sensitivity checks for unmeasured confounding and recall bias — give researchers and policymakers a transparent template for identifying which childhood factors might be most worth targeting through early intervention programs. If we can better understand which early experiences tend to accompany higher or lower well-being later in life, we can design more effective support systems for children and families. This is especially valuable for public health, education, and social services that aim to improve life outcomes from the start.
This research matters because it gives us a shared, rigorous way to study how childhood experiences relate to adult well-being across cultures — not just in one country, but globally. By analyzing each country separately before combining results, the study respects that people in different cultures may interpret questions differently, which makes the findings more trustworthy. The methods described here — including sensitivity checks for unmeasured confounding and recall bias — give researchers and policymakers a transparent template for identifying which childhood factors might be most worth targeting through early intervention programs. If we can better understand which early experiences tend to accompany higher or lower well-being later in life, we can design more effective support systems for children and families. This is especially valuable for public health, education, and social services that aim to improve life outcomes from the start.
Rigorous, transparent science provides the evidence needed to build policies that support children and families globally.
§3
The Story
Think about your childhood. How close were you to your parents? How was your family's money situation?
A single, shared recipe allows scientists to discover what truly helps people thrive, no matter where they live.
Did you feel like an outsider in your own home? A massive new study set out to understand how experiences like these growing up relate to how people feel about their lives today — across 22 countries and more than 200,000 adults. The researchers looked at things like the quality of your relationship with your mother and father, whether your parents were married, your family's financial comfort, whether you experienced abuse, how healthy you felt as a kid, and whether you attended religious services. They wanted to see which of these childhood factors were connected to how people feel about themselves as adults.
To do this fairly across very different cultures, they analyzed each country separately and then combined the results. They used careful statistical tools to handle missing answers and to check whether unmeasured factors could be skewing the results. As an example, they looked at 'sense of mastery' — how often people feel very capable in life. They found that no single childhood experience stood out above all the rest. Instead, it was a combination of several childhood factors that appeared to matter.
Most of the individual connections were small, but together they paint a picture: our early experiences tend to travel with us into adulthood in ways that are subtle but real.
Figures
64%
Global Population Coverage
The 22 countries included in wave 1 of the Global Flourishing Study encompass approximately 64% of the world's population.
1.08x
Childhood Health and Adult Mastery
Adults who reported excellent self-rated health in childhood had 1.08 times the risk of endorsing a sense of mastery compared to those who reported good childhood health.
13:17
Predictors Retained After Multicollinearity
Of the 17 initially preregistered childhood predictors, 13 were retained after four were removed due to multicollinearity issues encountered during preliminary testing.
§4
Reader Questions
Research Details
& Citation
Chat with this paperPublished
2025
Journal
BMC Global and Public Health
Participants
200,000
Countries
22
Cite this paper
Padgett, R. N., Bradshaw, M., Chen, Y., Cowden, R. G., Jang, S. J., Kim, E. S., Shiba, K., Johnson, B. R., & VanderWeele, T. J. (2025). Analytic methodology for childhood predictor analyses for wave 1 of the Global Flourishing Study. BMC Global and Public Health, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.1186/s44263-025-00142-0Tags
childhoodlife-coursemethodologycross-culturalmasteryparenting
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